Read the Full Market Watch Report

It was another great month for Toronto real estate sellers.  We’re starting to quiet down for the Christmas holidays, but I expect that things will take off again very early in the New Year.  Many people may be reflecting on their decisions over the holidays, and I’m sure that there will be a press for people to sell their homes before the interest rates go up and the new HST takes a swing at us.

All forecasts show that the sales will be just as great once things settle down and everyone has had their holiday food and gifts – and that means individuals who need to sell should begin thinking about their options now.

Figures from Toronto Realtors are looking great…

• In November, there were 7,446 sales – this is slightly more than double the November 2008 numbers when GTA home sales had dipped markedly due to the economic downturn!
• Year to date sales are up 14% compared to the first 11 months of 2008.
• “This year in the GTA home sales will be in line with the healthy levels experienced between 2004 and 2006,” said President Tom Lebour.  “Increased resale home transactions in the Toronto area and country-wide played a key role in pushing the Canadian economy out of recession in the third quarter.”
• The average price for November transactions was up 14% year-over-year to $418,460.  The average price year-to-date was up 4% to $394,464.
• “Very strong annual growth rages for sales and average price should be expected through the first quarter of 2010, because we will be comparing the current recovery to the housing market decline experienced last winter,” says Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.  “As we move into the spring, growth rates will move to more sustainable levels.”

Holiday Home Sellers May Earn Thousands More

According to the statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board, those interested in selling their home in December or January may earn thousands more than individuals who sold their home around the same time last year.  The median price this November was $353,800 – up more than $40,000 from last year’s $312,250.

What does this mean for individuals looking to sell now?  Even though it’s the holidays and things are settling down, you can expect to earn thousands more this year than those who sold their homes at the same time last year during the market decline.  This is just another sign that things are really looking up in the real estate industry.

Breaking Down the Difference – Nov 2008 to Nov 2009-12-10

November’s over and the results are in – we’re looking at a major increase this year.  In fact, sales in November of 2008 were around 3,640 while this year brought in about 7,446.  That’s a 105% increase!  New listings weren’t much different, with November of 2008’s numbers at 9,925 and this year’s numbers at 9,923.  The days on the market were down significantly, at 26 this year as opposed to last year’s 41.  This means that houses are being snapped up more quickly – so sellers shouldn’t have to wait long to get that check in their hand!

Taking Bets: What is the Total Difference?

Right now, for single family houses, there’s a major difference between this year and last year.  Last year, the year-to-date sales were about 74,552 with a median price of about $379,347.  With November’s numbers tallied, this year’s sales were about 81,929 with a median price of about $394,464.  I estimate that we’ll pass last year’s numbers by more than 10,000 houses sold, easily.  This is a great sign of what is to come.

It really is amazing what can happen in one year’s time.  In October of last year, we were all sure the sky was falling.  Agents were considering part time jobs or returning to past careers…and this October, things are looking quite different.  It’s a busy month, with the multiple offer nights, and there appears to be no slowing on the horizon.

I’ve even participated in 8 multiple offers this past month!  Some clients seem to be frustrated by this – they don’t want to overpay just so they can beat someone else, but they want a house.  We need more listings to balance this market again.

The first sellers to get their homes on the market are going to be the winners – just like the people who bought up a year ago…or bought for the first time.  The drastic increase in average price is in keeping with these multiple offers.

Just look at these figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board…

• In October 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,476 sales, up 64 per cent from October 2008. The average price for October transactions was $423,559 – up by 20 per cent compared to the same month last year.
• Year-to-date sales, at 74,721, were up nine per cent compared to the first ten months of 2008. Average price, at $392,264 was up by almost three per cent.
• “After a short dip in the winter, the average home price in the GTA has rebounded because sales have been high relative to listings,” according to Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Watch for listings to rebound in 2010 as home owners react to the strong sales and price growth experienced in the latter half of this
  year.”

Selling Time Decreased for Listed Houses

Homeowners who get their homes on the market now may not have to wait very long before they have that check in hand, according to statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board.  In the East District last year, homes selling had been on the market for around thirty-five days.  In the West District, it was closer to forty days.  This year, homes are selling after having been on the market only around twenty-five days in both districts.

This is a positive sign that things are moving more quickly for the Toronto Real Estate industry this year.  The total average days on market are about twenty. This means that sellers can get their houses listed and sold quickly – able to move onto the next chapters in their lives without dangling over the house they are having a difficult time selling.  The forecast for 2010 looks great as well.  With those above-mentioned multiple offers, the housing market has most definitely made a turn for the better in October 2009.

2010 Listings Forecasted To Be Great

As homeowners see the improvement October has brought, more and more of them will consider listing their own homes.  With decreased selling times, higher sale prices and more sales being made – homeowners are going to want their own slice of the pie.  As John Mercer said in the Toronto Real Estate Board Report, “…sales have been high relative to listings.”  When more listings are available, we’ll see a more balanced industry where individuals can sell their homes quickly and for a price they want to see.

Breaking Down the Difference: 2008 to 2009

5,155 sales occurred in 2008 in the Toronto area.  This year, we saw 8,476.  Obviously, this is a positive statistic, especially considering the number of listings for both years.  October 2008 saw 14,530 new listings.  That means that less than half of the new listings sold last year.  However, this October saw only 11,532 new listings and more than half were sold.  The days on the market were significantly shorter this year as well.  It’s easy to see why these stats have homeowners looking to sell pretty excited – not to mention the $45,000 median price increase we saw this year.

It has gone against conventional economic wisdom, but in August 2009 according to TREB’s August Market Watch Toronto Real Estate Agents reported 8,035 sales, which is up 27% over August 2008. The average price rose 6% to $387,921 compared to the same month in 2008. Toronto real estate came through this past year relatively unscathed. People haven’t earned the standard 8%-10% annual increase in property value that they had gotten use to over the past decade, but as of right now Toronto property values have increased by just less than half of a percent over the last 8 months according to TREB reports.  The total number of transactions has gone up two percent to 58,421 compared to the first 8 months of 2008.

As a pat on the back for all REALTORS we are being given some credit in helping the economy recover. Along with the transactions in Real Estate our business leads to home buyers’ spending money on lots of other things like mortgage and legal services, moving expenditures, renovations, appliances and furnishings for a home.

I was starting to really enjoy being in a more balanced market, it is great to be able to negotiate one on one with someone. Something that I learned over this past year is that people can truly make money in bad times and good. I had several clients buy over this past year and they are all really happy that they did, they may have taken a slight loss on the sell side, but they made up for it on the discounted purchase, now they are getting to tell their friends about their Trump-like instincts. It is always good to hear people excited about real estate.

While TREB reported a modest increase in overall property prices for Toronto some neighbourhoods have been trading significantly above their 2008 prices.  One area that comes to mind is Leslieville. I have been hearing the first time buyer ghost stories about homes that sold with 15 offers and other frightening rumours like that. I am always mindful about clients getting involved in multiple offers and overpaying due to the pressure. I believe that you need a very sound strategy heading into those situations and know what your top offer is well before the presentation time. Every house has a certain value where it goes from a great house to a bad investment. I am keen on having clients come back to me several years after they purchase and being able to make some money when they sell.

With these situations becoming realty you also need to be cautious about buying into an area that is bubbling. Your average renovated semi-detached home in Leslieville has gone from $350K-$450K up to $530K plus in the worst economy the world has seen in 70 years. That is a little concerning to me. Not because I don’t think Leslieville is a good area or a great investment, it just means that I am very cautious about multiple offers and over paying into an area that hasn’t really proven itself yet. Someone was just shot and killed at Dundas and Jones a few weeks ago. If you are willing to spend $650K maybe you can find an area that has proven itself a bit more.